论坛活动

时 间

2025年12月17日（周三）上午10:00-11:30

地 点

中国人民大学中关村校区明德主楼801

主办单位

国家金融研究院、中国人民大学财政金融学院

主讲嘉宾简介

余昌华，北京大学博雅青年学者、北大国发院经济学教授、教育部长江青年学者，中国经济研究中心副主任。2012年毕业于英属哥伦比亚大学，获经济学博士。在此之前，先后就读于中国人民大学（法学学士）和北京大学（经济学硕士）。主要研究方向为国际金融、货币政策、金融市场与宏观经济，研究得到国家自然科学基金、国际清算银行、香港货币与金融研究中心多次资助，在国内外顶级经济学学术刊物 Review of Economic Studies, Journal of International Economics、Journal of Monetary Economics、The Economic Journal、Journal of Economic Theory、 《经济研究》等发表多篇学术论文。

沙龙内容摘要

This paper develops a dynamictwo-country general equilibrium framework to analyze the welfare effects of optimal capital controls and trade policies. Large economies take advantage of intratemporal and/or intertemporal terms of trade manipulation to improve their welfare. Non-zero net foreign asset positions present a room for a country to manipulate its intertemporal terms-of-trade. Results demonstrate that capital controls that aim solely at manipulating the interest rate are "beggar-thy-neighbor" , but generate negligible welfare gains. When a country is allowed to manipulate both intertemporal and intratemporal terms of trade, tariffs generate significant welfare gains for this country. Nevertheless, when two countries engage in a discretionary non-cooperative Nash equilibrium, strategic optimal policies lead to welfare losses for both countries, while international policy coordination is able to curb such beggar-thy-neighbor effects and uphold global economic efficiency.