论坛活动

时 间

2025年10月27日（周一）上午10:00-11:30

地 点

中国人民大学中关村校区 明德主楼836

主办单位

国家金融研究院、中国人民大学财政金融学院货币金融系

主讲嘉宾简介

许志伟，复旦大学经济学院，教授、博导，毕业于香港科技大学经济系，获经济学博士学位，主要研究兴趣为中国宏观经济、宏观金融、货币政策、经济波动等。主持国家自科优秀青年基金、教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项等国家级重要项目。研究成果入选ESI高被引论文，并获2016浦山世界经济青年论文奖、2020中国信息经济学会优秀成果奖、2022第七次全国优秀财政理论研究成果一等奖、2022中国信息经济学会创新成果奖、2023上海市第十六届哲学社会科学优秀成果论文类一等奖等。主要论文发表在 American Economic Journal: Macro. Economic Journal. Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Theory、Quantitative Economics 以及《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学季刊》等国内外重要期刊。目前担任 China and World Economy、Economic Modelling、《经济学报》、《金融学季刊》副主编。

沙龙内容摘要

We study the transmission mechanism and the design of optimal monetary policy in an economy where data is produced as a byproduct of economic activity and improves firms' forecasting accuracy. In a data-intensive economy, monetary policy gains a new propagation channel that broadens aggregate supply through a direct and dynamic feedback loop between real activity and data generation, thereby amplifying the output response and attenuating the inflation response to monetary policy shocks. We present empirical evidence of the new mechanism and the significant connection between data generation and firms' forecasting accuracy. Data significantly influences monetary policy: it decreases the likelihood of self-fulfilling expectations from the response of interest rate to inflation, and significantly changes the optimal policy design. An enriched Taylor-rule rule with the value of data achieves allocations close to the optimal policy.